Match Preview: Bayern vs Arsenal - Champions League 11.03.2014
Our fortunes have taken a brighter turn over the weekend, but it was a bit of a roller-coaster. To wit:
1. Demolish Everton to advance to the FA Cup semifinal.
2. Learn that we'd face the winner of Man City-Wigan in said semifinal.
3. Watch in disbelief as Wigan defeats Man City at the Etihad.
The giddiness with which many of us has greeted steps one and three more than make up for the brief dismay spawned by number two—but more to the point, they set a certain tone for our trip to Allianz Arena.
Before the first leg, there was trepidation mixed with anticipation. Surely, we told ourselves, we would do better than last year, when we lost ignominiously, and thereby set ourselves up for an even more-famous second leg victory that would catapult us to the Champions League quarterfinal. However, it didn't quite turn out that way, and we're right back to where we started—needing an improbably three-goal victory to advance. Between then and now, we've stumbled in the Prem enough to all but close the door on our chances for silverware there. As a result, there's been a rapid reassessment of priorities, one that has further de-emphasized the Champions League in my mind. While not quite writing it off—bear with me—I'm writing it off. Still with me?
Bayern are on a stunning run of form that recently saw them equal the Invincibles for most consecutive league games unbeaten (49) with their 6-1 demolition of Wolfsburg. They haven't dropped points in the Bundesliga since a 1-1 draw at Bayer Leverkusen on 5 October. Their only loss in any competition was a meaningless 2-3 loss to Man City in the UCL group stage, a group in which two teams managed three points each and that Bayern had already sewn up. There has been some hay made around the notion that it's this week that Bayern face the two teams to have defeated them in any significant way—us on Tuesday and Bayer Leverkusen on Saturday. Leverkusen, by the way, handed Bayern its last loss in the Bundesliga...in October 2012. However, the symbolism around these defeats should, if anything heighten Bayern's motivation that much more. All season, they've been like a lazy dragon swatting away puny, pathetic knights. Such is the state of their dominance that the pre-match question isn't whether they'll win but by how much. In this year alone, ten of their 22 league wins have come by three goals or more. For us to have then held them to a 0-2 win despite being down a man is impressive.
Speaking of which, Arsène had a bit of pre-match fun, suggesting that he looks forward to "a fair chance to play with 11 versus 11 until the end." He's alluding, of course, the red-card that Szczesny was shown for upending Robben in the first leg. Here's where we come to my "not quite writing it off" routine. Everyone assumes that we'll be writing this one off. After all, we're already dead in the water, having lost 0-2 at home. Bayern are absolutely invincible (although I have my doubts as to their qualifications for capitalizing the "I", as I discuss here). That, and the idea that we're now focusing exclusively on the FA Cup, suggest that we'll show up at Allianz Arena, say, "thank you, sir; may I have another?" and be on our jolly way back to dear old Blighty.
There's a chance, however slim, that all of this will lead to Bayern dropping their guard a bit. That chance, coupled with the idea that we can play freely and without regard to outcomes, might just allow us to slip in an early goal and see if they don't panic a bit. It all sounds improbable, what with a sentence that includes chance, slim, chance again, and idea. Dodgy, even, until we remember that this is essentially the same script we were handed last season.
Alas, I'm afraid to say that I don't see it anything. Despite my desire to always put a brave face on things, the jaded indifference with which Bayern has been demolishing opponents will likely fall by the wayside as they seek to avenge last year's embarrassment before once again sinking into bloated, gluttonous boredom as they polish off the rest of their Bundesliga fixtures. Last year, after all, they sat back, content to coast through on their away-goals, and I don't see them doing the same this time.
LAST 3
- Arsenal 0-2 Bayern (19.02.2014)
- Bayern 0-2 Arsenal (13.03.2013)
- Arsenal 1-3 Bayern (19.02.2013)
FACTFILE
- Bayern have scored at least two goals in each Champions League match this season.
- Only Man City and Arsenal have won at Allianz Arena since October 2012.
- Bayern are undefeated in their last 30 matches in all competitions.
INJURIES
Yes, Walcott (knee) and Diaby (knee) are still unavailable. Gibbs (ankle) has been ruled out, as have Wilshere (ankle), Monreal (ankle), Sanogo (ankle), Källström (back), and Ramsey (thigh).
POSSIBLE STARTING XI
Fabianski; Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Vermaelen; Arteta, Flamini; Oxlade-Chamberlain, Ozil, Cazorla; Giroud
I'd expect Bayern to win this one comfortably, content to sit on their away goals but ensuring that there's no repeat of last year's theatrics.
GOONERSPHERE PREDICTION
Bayern 2-1
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