Arsenal would be champions but for a striker

We shouldn't be beating ourselves up over this season, we saw it coming a mile off, but as much as we can genuinely wish Leicester well it is hard to swallow watching a team who, on paper, aren't as good as us. I'm sure Chelsea, Man City and even Sp*rs will feel similar.

What Leicester have achieved proves that you don't need to spend £50m on world-class players all over the pitch if you have one or two and complement them with effort, togetherness and a well-executed tactical plan. Mahrez and Kante have been the world-class stars for Leicester this season with Vardy, Morgan, Drinkwater and Schmeichel fulfilling the necessary quota of 'very good players' and the rest of the team being decent Premier League standard players. On paper the majority of the City, Chelsea, Arsenal and Sp*rs squads would walk into Leicester's but as Andy Gray famously quipped every 5 minutes on FIFA, the game is played on paper.

On paper, Arsenal's next match was supposed to be a title decider and our opponents, Manchester City, will be as frustrated as we are that it isn't. City have a Champions League semi-final to look forward to whilst we only have the faint hope of finishing 2nd whilst also fighting off the very real possibility of finishing as low as 6th. 

Arsenal can secure a top four place with a win in either of their final two games but should they do it against City they will also confirm a place in the top three and a guaranteed spot in the group stages of the 2016/17 Champions League. The odds aren't in Arsenal's favour according to Paddy Power but City's recent form coupled with their Champions League semi-final distraction does give Arsenal a better than average chance of taking all three points at the Etihad.

Both team have had defensive lapses recently so ultimately it will come down to who is sharpest in front of goal and that has to be a worry for Arsenal. The boys on the Goonersphere Podcast said in their most recent episode that Giroud cannot continue to start over Welbeck. It has been 15 games since Giroud last scored in the league and as good as his assist against Norwich was he hasn't done enough to warrant starting in such an important game.

You can see how frustrated Özil is in this team right now and his record-breaking and setting season for chances created has been wasted on sub-par finishing. Albeit not the fairest comparison considering their different positions, Mahrez created 45 chances in 36 games for Leicester this season and achieved 11 assists. His team had a 25% conversion rate with his chances. At last count, Özil had created over 140 chances this season and achieved just 18 assists. It seems wrong to say just 18 assists but that is a conversion record of under 13%.

Had Arsenal's players achieved the same conversion rate with Özil's chances as the Leicester team did with Mahrez's then Özil would be on 36 assists. That would be worth an extra 18 goals to Arsenal over 36 games. It's hard to say precisely what that would be worth to Arsenal but even if we said it would only affect out home points with 18 goals equally spread across our home games it would be worth 10 points - Liverpool draw to win = 2, Sp*rs draw to win = 2, Chelsea loss to draw = 1, Southampton draw to win = 2, Swansea loss to draw = 1, Palace draw to win= 2.

1 in 4 of Mahrez's key passes resulted in a Leicester goal.

Just 1 in 8 of Özil's resulted in an Arsenal goal.

That's where we've failed

— Goonersphere.com (@Goonersphere) May 3, 2016

Had Arsenal been as clinical with Özil's chances as Leicester were with Mahrez's he'd have 36 assists. Imagine where we'd be.

— Goonersphere.com (@Goonersphere) May 3, 2016

Arsenal would be top on 77 points by virtue of a goal difference of +43 - Leicester would be on +29 as we'd have score an extra home goal against them in this scenario. There is every chance Leicester would still be crowned champions but with everything to play for, a far better season behind them and strong momentum it's likely this alternate universe Arsenal would go on to win their final two games and finish as champions, albeit on goal difference.

The biggest cost to Arsenal's season has been a lethargy in front of goal and a disgracful spurning of the ample chances Mesut Özil has created. Jamie Vardy has proven that you don't need to be the obvious replacements for Giroud like Benzema or Higuain to fire your team to glory. Had Arsenal invested in another mobile striker, or another winger to properly deputise for Alexis so Theo had continued to grow as a striker rather than flounder on the left and play so badly he's made everyone forget how good he was before Alexis' injury then I might be writing about us as champions-elect.

As it stands we don't have the strikers Özil deserves but the best we have for him right now is Danny Welbeck and we have to hope to God he's the one starting on Sunday.

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